by Bill Connelly
I knew the Tebow Hate had gone to the brand brand new spin when my wife giddily became the air blower of "Tim Tebow Crying" upon Facebook. This is an engaging universe in which we live.
Box Score(s) of the Week
We have been starting with dual VN Box Scores this week, as great as we can substantially guess which dual they are. That's right, the dual games which served as inhabitant semifinals last week -- Alabama-Florida as great as Nebraska-Texas (in which Nebraska served as the surrogate for Cincinnati/TCU).
Alabama 32, Florida 13
Last weekend's SEC pretension diversion was the ultimate example of when we contend "If these dual teams played ten times ..." To me, there was not the lot of disproportion in conditions of athleticism or talent, though Alabama had an positively illusory diversion plan, as great as they out-executed Florida. If they were to play again this weekend, the same diversion devise wouldn't work, as great as Florida competence strike back. But this is college football, not baseball. It's the one-shot deal, as great as Nick Saban positively coached laps around Urban Meyer.
(Speaking of which ... why, oh why, did Urban Meyer give up upon the run so quickly?)
Saban unequivocally has done an superb pursuit this year, taking the group churned with tangible veterans as great as insanely talented, precocious youth as great as creation them the discerning as great as meant group able of beating we with both offense (as they did Saturday) as great as invulnerability (as they did many of the year). People have been presumption Alabama will win the inhabitant pretension after they played their many appropriate diversion of the year as great as Texas laid an comprehensive scent bomb, but, again, we worship the sport reliant upon one-shot deals. It usually takes the single diversion for Texas to steal the Tide's thunder.
While Florida's descent numbers were normal during best, this diversion was obviously motionless by Ala! bama's u nexpected unstoppable offense. When deliberation which the usually teams to give up some-more EqPts to Alabama than Florida were Florida International, North Texas as great as Chattanooga, it is over fair to pretence which Saban as great as organisation were saving up quite the couple of tricks for the greatest diversion upon the schedule, substantially even prior to it officially became the diversion upon the schedule. Of course, leaving things in the bag of tricks can backfire when we roughly lose to Auburn as great as Tennessee along the way, though all's great which ends well.
Looking during the per-quarter breakdown, it's easy to tell when this diversion was won. After the tough initial quarter, Florida fought during the back of to inside of 19-13 during halftime. At this point, games can spin in dual different ways. When Team A reaches halftime thinking, "We're propitious to be this close," possibly Team B puts things divided simply in the second half, or Team A takes value of the second hold up as great as wins via second half surge. Alabama-Florida was certainly the former scenario. Florida ran 8 plays for 21 yards in the third quarter, whilst Alabama went upon an epic, game-clinching third-quarter drive to put the diversion away.
On the side note, the single day we will find the poser of second down. In so many games, we see teams with great initial and/or third down success, though minimal success upon second down (or, clamp versa). Is it the same sort of "leaving things in the bag of tricks" phenomenon, where we have been saving the plays we definitely consider will work until third downs, when we positively need them?
Texas 13, Nebraska 12
I consider Texas is an superb football team, though when the replay officials were reviewing either there was possibly the single or zero seconds left in the Big 12 pretension game, we was very strongly hoping the referee would put down the headphones as great as announce, "After serve review, conjunction of these teams deserves to! win thi s game. It's the tie. Everybody go home." Surely we was not the usually one.
Take heed, Nebraska fans. Your group was not alone in passing for the negative EqPt sum this season. In all, it happened to FBS offenses 24 times this season, as great as NU's horrible -1.4 indicate sum was not even in the top, er, bottom five.
Worst Ten FCS Passing Games of the Season, 2009
1. UTEP (vs Texas), -4.72. Ball State (vs Eastern Michigan), -2.83. Illinois (vs Ohio State), -2.04. Washington State (vs Oregon), -1.75. New Mexico State (vs Louisiana Tech), -1.66. Nebraska (vs Texas), -1.47. Boston College (vs North Carolina), -1.08. Boston College (vs Clemson), -0.89. Tulane (vs UCF), -0.710. Air Force (vs Wyoming), -0.6
Meanwhile, Texas has faced dual of the country's tip 4 defenses in conditions of Defensive S&P+, second-ranked Oklahoma as great as fourth-ranked Nebraska. Their sum output? A whopping 29 points, 471 yards (311 passing yards, 55 percent completion rate, 4.1 yards per pass, the single touchdown pass as great as 4 interceptions from Heisman Finalist Colt McCoy), 6 turnovers, as great as dual wins saved by the widespread Texas defense. The great news: Texas did in truth win these games, as great as their seventh-ranked invulnerability rose to the occasion each time. The bad news: Alabama's invulnerability is ranked initial in the country, ahead of both Oklahoma's as great as Nebraska's. We will get in to how Alabama's invulnerability differs from which of Nebraska as great as Oklahoma later; for now, Texas is in truth lazy many of the pretension hopes upon "Hey, we usually have to improved than them once."
SUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUH
The last 5 seasons have set the unequivocally tall standard for the spin of performance required to win the Heisman Trophy. Matt Leinart (2004), Tim Tebow (2007) as great as S! am Bradf ord (2008) have set the unequivocally tall club for quarterbacks, whilst the current standard for using backs is Reggie Bush (2005).
As we prepare for tomorrow night's Heisman ceremony, it appears which 3 players have been in the tight competition to become the 2009 winner: Alabama's Mark Ingram, Stanford's Toby Gerhart, as great as Nebraska's Ndamukong Suh.
So here's my honest question: do possibly Mark Ingram or Toby Gerhart reach the "transcendent player" club set by Bush, most reduction Leinart or 2007 Tebow? More importantly, do they reach the club of dual players who didn't win the Heisman, Adrian Peterson as great as Vince Young?
By all means, Ingram has been great this year, coming off of the solid-not-spectacular freshman deteriorate to lift the offense to the inhabitant pretension game. His 182 sum rushing as great as receiving yards in the SEC Championship were outstanding, as were his 174 sum yards against LSU as great as 269 yards against South Carolina. He unequivocally is the great during the back of who deserves All-America standing as great as an distinction of the Heisman finalist.
Meanwhile, Gerhart has been staggeringly consistent, rushing for during least 110 yards in ten of 12 games this season. More impressively, he improved in November. After averaging some-more than 5 yards per lift usually twice in the initial 8 games, his last 4 games have seen averages of 5.9, 6.1, 6.8 as great as 7.1. Again, he is very most deserving of All-America standing as great as the outing to New York notwithstanding the actuality which he has usually been indeed great for about half of the season.
But here's the deal. If we have been perplexing to set the club as tall as humanly possible, there is usually the single possible leader of this year's Heisman, as great as if we watched even the single Nebraska diversion this season, we know who which is. For the second straight year, Ndamukong Suh led Nebraska's invulnerability in tackles. He accomplished seventh in the nation! in sum tackles for loss. That would be great for the linebacker as great as very great for the defensive end. He is the defensive tackle.
On the ridiculously stormy Thursday night in Columbia, Suh roughly single-handedly won the Big 12 North for Nebraska against Missouri by intercepting the pass, forcing the fumble, registering the pouch (one which injured Blaine Gabbert's ankle as great as exceedingly limited offense for the rest of the night) as great as sketch during least 3 drive-killing holding penalties in the 27-12 Nebraska win which done the disproportion in the North race.
And upon the Saturday night when Texas approaching to waltz in to the pretension diversion as double-digit favorites, Suh roughly single-handedly won it for Nebraska. Against the single of the improved descent lines he faced all season, Suh done 10 piece for the single person tackles, 7 for loss, with 4.5 sacks as great as dual some-more quarterback hurries. It was the many widespread particular defensive performance of the season.
(In fact, if he had come up with the single fewer hurry -- if he hadn't pressured Colt McCoy in to throwing the round divided progressing than he appeared to intend upon the game's second-to-last play, permitting the round to in the future strike the belligerent with the second left -- Nebraska would have won.)
Unfortunately, we doubt Suh has most of the chance of finishing aloft than third in the Heisman vote, even though usually about every pundit acknowledges which he is the many appropriate player in college football. He put together the great linebacker's stats from the plunge in to position, though Nebraska's offense substantially cost him the small critical voter momentum by pulling the disappearing action in losses to Texas Tech as great as Iowa State. If Nebraska had won those games as great as ranked in the tip 10 heading in to the Big 12 pretension game, he might have had enough juice to get it done
Or not. He's the defensive tackle, as great as as we've all learne! d from t he Heisman process, in reserve from the rarest circumstances, we apparently cannot be the many appropriate player in the nation unless we have been the quarterback or using back. So instead, he will expected finish third during the back of dual rock-solid-but-not-world-beating using backs. Suh is the many appropriate playmaker we have ever seen from the defensive plunge in to position, as great as it is the contrition which he will expected tumble reduced of what would be the transcendent impulse for the Heisman Trophy.
Fumble-itis
This is conjunction here nor there, though deliberation Football Outsiders takes the look during recovered fumbles, accounting for disproportionately tall or low totals, when gauging the pro team's true performance, we thought it would be engaging to do the same during the college level. Below have been 2009's many appropriate as great as worst teams in conditions of fail recoveries. we bet the group in the 120th container will surprise you.
Vanderbilt accomplished 2-10 notwithstanding recovering the country's highest commission of fumbles. In other words, it could have been even worse. Meanwhile, Georgia Tech's Orange Bowl deteriorate could have turned out most otherwise if they had recovered closer to 50 percent of the fumbles in their games.
Florida, Iowa and, to the obtuse extent, Clemson as great as West Virginia, all had solid seasons notwithstanding horrible luck in the recoveries department, as great as notwithstanding the departure of the small pretty large stars. All 4 competence have the softer-than-expected alighting subsequent deteriorate if their luck turns around.
F/+ Top 25
As always, we can find the ultimate iteration of the S&P+ rankings updated weekly upon Football Outsiders.
Overall RankingsOffensive RankingsDefensive Rankings
We will cover the ups as great as downs of the unchanging season's last week end in the moment. First, here is the last unchanging deteriorate book of the F/+ rankings, the comb! ination of FEI as great as S&P+.
Both sets of rankings kept Florida in the tip two, which is not unequivocally surprising deliberation their usually detriment was to the top-ranked team. Meanwhile, it is substantially value referring to which TCU (third) accomplished ahead of both Texas (fourth) as great as Cincinnati (10th). It unequivocally is the contrition which they had this breakthrough year with dual undefeated teams in the pretension game.
Biggest S&P+ Movers of the Week
We still had the small decent movers this week notwithstanding the low series of games.
Strongest Rises
East Carolina (9 spots, from 63rd to 54th). The numbers have not been tall upon East Carolina all season, though Skip Holtz's Pirates looked very great in upsetting Houston for their second straight Conference USA title, as great as the ratings reflect that.
Washington (8 spots, from 81st to 73rd). we did not get the single second of the Washington-California diversion where we live, so we do not know if the surprising 42-10 Huskies win was due some-more to Washington personification great or California laying an additional egg, though the ratings appear to suggest it was the small of both.
Rutgers (7 spots, from 94th to 87th). If we can insist this one, let me know.
Illinois (7 spots, from 74th to 67th). The Illini all though beat (and we mean, all though beat) the Fresno State group ranked nineteen spots ahead of them last week, so they got the boost notwithstanding the ridiculous, heart-breaking loss.
Largest Falls
California (18 spots, from 47th to 65th). Washington went up 8 spots as great as California fell 18. Guess which equates to the strange result was dual tools Cal, the single partial Washington.
Fresno State (7 spots, from 55th to 62nd). See above.
UNLV (6 spots, from 78th to 84th). See Rutgers.
Florida State (5 spots, from 35th to 40th). A Bobby Bowden retirement bump?
Random Golf Clap
To ESPN, for updating as great a! s re-run ning this superb Mark Herzlich video during last night's otherwise iffy college football awards show. we feel similar to Tom Rinaldi's pursuit during ESPN is to try to have people similar to me cry, week in as great as week out. Usually it fails miserably because I'm stubborn, though this story unequivocally got to me, as did the cut to the teary-eyed Herzlich as great as his family after the video ended.
Random Mini-Rant
Since the inaugurated member have the time in their busy report to order the football playoff to happen, I'd similar to to start an additional movement for Congress to adopt -- outlawing the re-writing of Christmas songs for blurb purposes. There have been millions of them right now, though if we see the singing Best Buy present recommendation commercials (you know them if you've seen them) the single some-more time, we am starting to dedicate the crime. Or usually boycott Best Buy. And it is usually Dec 11.
Random Reasons to Love College Football
The end-of-season outing to Hawaii. It is similar to the rite of thoroughfare for BCS discussion teams, often from the Midwest. In the last twenty years, the following teams have finished their unchanging deteriorate with the outing to Honolulu to play the Angry Rainbows: Alabama (twice), California, Cincinnati, Michigan, Michigan State, Missouri, Northwestern, Notre Dame (twice), Oklahoma State, Oregon State (twice), Pittsburgh, Washington, Washington State, as great as Wisconsin (four times!). Really, it is the win-win scenario. You get an extra unchanging deteriorate diversion for creation the trip, we get an excuse to go to Hawaii as the weather is starting to spin awfully nippy, as great as you'll often even win the game. Early-December trips to Hawaii have been to college football what Thanksgiving Day games have been to the NFL, usually you'll essentially occasionally get the fun diversion to watch!
Random Playlist
Another list with the thesis which is over predictable.
"All we Need is the! Holiday " by Fighting Gravity"Happy Holidays, Pt. 1" by Ohio Players"Holiday" by Weezer"Holiday in Cambodia" by Dead Kennedys"Holiday in New York" by The Ike Reilly Assassination"Holiday in Spain" by Counting Crows"Holidays in the Sun" by Sex Pistols"The Holiday Song" by Pixies"One Big Holiday" by My Morning Jacket"Waiting" by D.W. Holiday
Upset Watch
All 3 of last week's dissapoint picks were rsther than entertaining, tight games. Unfortunately, usually the single resulted in an actual upset, so the unchanging deteriorate ends with the 1-2 week.
Army over Navy. S&P+ Projection: Navy by 21 | Spread: Navy -14
This in no approach shapes up as an upset, though it is the usually diversion upon the docket. It does bear mentioning, however, which Army is the single dissapoint divided from the initial play bid since the 1996 Independence Bowl, the 32-29 detriment to Auburn. If Army wins, they get an automatic bid to the EagleBank Bowl in Washington, D.C., the bid which UCLA will take if Navy wins. Yes, UCLA is officially fighting with Army for the last play bid. I'm starting to go out upon the prong as great as contend which hasn't happened before.
Closing Thoughts
I should substantially tighten with the discerning criticism about Notre Dame's brand brand new conduct coach, Brian Kelly. we similar to this sinecure the lot. While rumors about Bob Stoops as great as Urban Meyer never unequivocally got off the belligerent (that's the complaint with unfounded rumors -- in the future they run in to the complaint of not essentially being based upon facts), Kelly seemed to be Notre Dame's No. 1 target from the beginning. we asked the couple of weeks ago either banishment Charlie Weis was essentially value it, as great as unless they landed the big-time guy, we consider it would have done usually as most sense to keep Weis around for the single some-more season. But Kelly is not usually the great coach, he also doesn't take long to win games with an additional coach's players. He too! k over t he 3-9 Central Michigan squad in 2004 and, after the 4-7 debut, led the Chippewas to their initial winning jot down of the decade in 2005, then the discussion pretension in 2006. He jumped to Cincinnati in 2007, as great as improved an 8-5 squad by dual wins (10-3) his initial year, then an additional win (11-3, Big East champions) in 2008. He lost roughly his entire invulnerability ... as great as went 12-0 in 2009. He appears to be the real deal, as great as between Central Michigan, Cincinnati, as great as his inhabitant pretension tenure during Grand Valley State, he also appears to have laid the small major Midwestern roots. I've never been most of the Notre Dame fan, as great as we am already dreading having to attend to Lou Holtz once again envision them to go 11-1 subsequent August (it's an annual tradition, followed by the annual point-and-laugh re-watching of the segment upon YouTube in November), though there is no questioning which this is the pretty great hire.
Posted by: Bill Connelly upon 11 Dec 2009
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